A new report commissioned by Tietoevry Banking and written by research and advisory firm Celent forecasts significant growth for digital commerce across Europe over the next decade. According to the study, the value of digital transactions is expected to reach €1.090trn across five major European markets by 2035.
The report, titled “A Future of European Payments”, identifies several key trends that are likely to redefine the payments landscape. Among these are the rising adoption of Account-to-Account (A2A) services, as well as the emergence of AI-driven agents that will increasingly automate purchasing decisions and transactions.
Focusing on Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and the UK, the report analyses these five significant e-commerce markets in Europe. Celent’s model divides its forecasts into three principal areas of change that will shape digital payments over the next decade.
One major theme is the ongoing battle between payment rails. While card payments are projected to continue growing in absolute terms, they are expected to lose market share to A2A solutions. Celent predicts A2A transactions will rise from 24% of the total in 2025 to nearly 40% by 2035. Meanwhile, digital wallets will remain important but are expected to evolve to a point where they are no longer easily identifiable as separate payment methods. Digital assets, such as a potential digital euro, are anticipated to become more visible, though they will still represent only a small part of the total payment volume.
The report also explores shifts in pay now and pay later options. The availability of instant payment methods, as well as credit and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services, will continue to expand. Demand for credit options is forecast to remain strong, offering both banks and wallet providers opportunities to introduce new credit products linked to A2A and wallet services. Celent estimates that credit tied to A2A transactions could grow to €35.7bn, accounting for just over 7% of the total pay later value by 2035.
Perhaps the most transformative development identified in the report is the rise of AI agents. Rather than altering how people pay, AI will change how consumers make purchases. Celent forecasts that these AI-powered agents, which initiate transactions on behalf of consumers, could account for €191bn in digital commerce across the five markets studied, representing 17.5% of total e-commerce volume by 2035. The report suggests that AI agent-led commerce will be particularly significant in sectors such as travel, food and drink, digital content, DIY and gardening, financial services, and entertainment.
Tietoevry Banking head of instant, retail payments and cards Natalija Dmitrijeva said, “The opportunity for European banks over the next 10 years is enormous. This report – while not attempting to provide an accurate prediction for the future – does highlight clear areas for development and growth. To play a leadership role in an expanding and changing payment landscape, banks and fintechs must be clear on the way one wants to play in e-commerce, digital wallets, and the development of digital identity infrastructure.”
Dmitrijeva continued, “Succeeding in this future landscape will mean more than outstanding technology solutions. It will also mean working with external partners on the gradual removal of siloed payment operations that are already acting as barriers to growth.
“At the same time, banks should be working with external partners to modernize their payment systems in preparation for an instant Account-to-Account future, as well as adopting a flexible strategy that allows them to maintain a profitable payment business and adapt to the huge changes that are coming.”
Tietoevry Banking, a financial SaaS solutions provider in the Nordics and globally, supports customers across 60 countries through its 3,400 experts. Its solutions cover payments, card value chains, frau
Source: https://fintech.global/
